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Kolkata\u2019s media, run by and addressed to, bhadralok consumers, has its pyjama strings in knots. Will a saffron wave sweep Bengal? Or will Mamata Banerjee\u2019s Trinamool Congress (TMC) dominate Lok Sabha seats, like the Left Front did before her?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bengal has 42 Lok Sabha constituencies, the third highest in India after UP and Maharashtra. In the 2009 general election TMC surprised everyone, including itself, by winning 19 of these. Unfazed by the Modi wave in 2014, it did even better, bagging 34. It wasn\u2019t always thus: in 2004, it bagged a solitary seat, down from eight in 1999.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Earlier, the CPM-led Left Front had a formidable record. In eight consecutive Lok Sabha polls between 1980 and 2004, it won anything between 38 (1980) and 26 (1984) seats. Of course, 1984 was India\u2019s biggest wave election, after the assassination of Indira Gandhi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What makes Bengal politics so different from that of UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, Kerala or Tamil Nadu, where ruling parties or coalitions change frequently and Lok Sabha fortunes vary dramatically? Why are incumbents so sticky in this eastern state?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Short answer: a giant, octopus-squid whose tentacles reach each household in every village and mohalla. This, system contrary to popular belief, was originally started by Congress in the early 1970s, when it began the immensely popular barga movement \u2013 to give formal land documents to small and marginal farmers. Each block had an advisory committee, which included, among others the block development officer and a local party representative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Of course, the land-rights and redistribution programme was hated by big landowners and local elites. Congress adopted a please-all policy, and when it took its eyes off the barga movement to placate fatcats, Left cadre planted a red flag for each new, empowered small plot-holder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s said Bengal doesn\u2019t have caste, or caste politics. What rubbish. Look at the matrimonial pages of any Bengali newspaper, as economist Abhijit Banerjee of MIT and three co-authors did, in 2009.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analysing marriage advertisements from one Bengali newspaper, they found caste was the single most important factor while choosing a mate. They also found at least eight broad caste groups, with at least 13 strains of Brahmins and four varieties of Baidyas at the top and around 13 different kinds of Dalits at the bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Given this, why didn\u2019t Bengal develop caste based parties, like, say Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh Yadav\u2019s OBC-centric outfits or Mayawati\u2019s BSP, which claim monopoly over Dalit interests?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Well, the Left never believed that caste mattered. Only class, defined by economics, did. They put this into practice: in 2007, the government reported data on how land redistribution had helped SC and ST households. Across India, 2.1 million SC families had got land; of this half was in Bengal alone. Among pan-India ST beneficiaries, nearly 63% were Bengali.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In his 2016 book, Dwaipayan Bhattacharyya shows how the Left defanged the rural elite, which took every decision in baithak-khana (drawing room) gatherings, where poor and lower caste were not allowed entry. The Left turned it on its head by shifting every decision to \u2018committees\u2019, village gatherings open to all, where all issues \u2013 including family disputes \u2013 were sorted out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also monopolised the distribution of fodder, fertiliser, whatever a villager could need, through the party. It targeted poorer communities whose numbers were far greater than others. Rural elites were given jobs as schoolmasters (in eventually a very powerful party organisation) and local administrators, but only with sworn party loyalty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2008, TMC wrested panchayats from the Left and began taking over this formidable organisation. By the time TMC swept to power in 2011, Left \u2018cadre\u2019 had become Didi\u2019s \u2018bhais\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So what are BJP\u2019s prospects for 2019? Here are some numbers. In the 2014 wave election BJP\u2019s vote share went up to 17%, from its miserable 2009 tally of 6%. This jump in vote share was the source of much bhadralok excitement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The glee was short lived: In 2016\u2019s Bengal assembly elections, BJP votes tumbled to 10%. No party with that few votes has crossed five seats in Bengal. \u201cThe people are to be taken in small doses,\u201d quipped Ralph Waldo Emerson. With 70 million voters \u2013 more than the entire population of the UK \u2013 BJP will find it tough to take Bengal in small doses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n