Number of words: 3,485<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Pentagon recently released three videos of UFOs recorded by the Navy \u2014 one taken in 2004 and the other two in 2015. The videos, which first leaked a couple of years ago, show \u2026 well, it\u2019s not exactly clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various objects \u2014 two of which look like aircraft \u2014 spinning through the sky and moving in ways that defy easy explanation. As the images bop across the screen, you can hear the pilots\u2019 excitement and confusion in real time as they track whatever it is they\u2019re seeing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m not what you would call a UFO enthusiast, but the videos are the most compelling I\u2019ve ever seen. They seem to confirm, at the very least, that UFOs are real \u2014 not that aliens exist, but that there are unidentified objects buzzing around the sky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now, do I think aliens are real? Yeah, probably. Are they flying spaceships into our atmosphere? Who the hell knows?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The best anyone can say is that there\u2019s a non-zero chance that some of these UFOs were made by non-human hands, and that, I\u2019d argue, is reason enough to talk about them. But it\u2019s barely cracked the news cycle. Even in a pandemic, you\u2019d think we\u2019d have a little time for UFO talk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So in an attempt to force a UFO conversation into the public discourse, I contacted Alexander Wendt, a professor of international relations at Ohio State University. Wendt is a giant in his field of IR theory, but in the past 15 years or so, he\u2019s become an amateur ufologist. He wrote an academic article about the political implications of UFOs in 2008, and, more recently, he gave a TEDx talk calling out the \u201ctaboo\u201d against studying UFOs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Wendt is about the closest thing you\u2019ll find to a UFO expert in a world in which ufology isn\u2019t a real science. Like other enthusiasts, he\u2019s spent a lot of time looking at the evidence, thinking about the stakes, and theorizing about why extraterrestrials would visit Earth in the first place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this conversation, which has been lightly edited for clarity, we discuss why scientists refuse to take UFOs seriously, why he thinks there\u2019s a good chance ETs are behind the aircraft in those videos, and why he believes the discovery of extraterrestrial life would be the most significant event in human history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Do you believe in extraterrestrial life?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Well, it\u2019s kind of like asking if somebody believes in God. It\u2019s just an odd question. I certainly believe that it\u2019s very likely there\u2019s extraterrestrial life somewhere in the universe, and I suspect even most scientists might agree with that now. The real question is, are ETs here? And that\u2019s obviously a much more debatable question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Are they here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I think the odds are high enough that we should be investigating it. It\u2019s as simple as that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why would aliens conceal their existence? I know you have theories on this \u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s possible they\u2019ve been here all along. And that\u2019s something that I\u2019ve been thinking about lately, which is a bit unsettling. Because it means it\u2019s their planet and not ours. They could just be intergalactic tourists. Maybe they\u2019re looking for certain minerals. It could just be scientific curiosity. It could be that they\u2019re extracting our DNA. I mean, who knows? I have no idea. All I know is that if they are here, they seem to be peaceful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You\u2019ve thought about this a lot, Alex. You must have a hunch as to which of those scenarios is most likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I think if they are here, they\u2019ve probably been here a very long time \u2014 that\u2019s my guess. And, look, there are medieval woodcuts that seem to show UFOs. There are UFO stories in the Bible, apparently, or at least stories that are interpreted that way. So I think they\u2019ve probably been here a long time if they\u2019re here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We\u2019re having this conversation because you\u2019ve been very public about calling out a \u201ctaboo\u201d against studying UFOs. What\u2019s your claim here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s very simple. There are things going on in the sky that are strange and do not have an obvious explanation. These are UFOs, and like any other unidentified phenomenon, human beings are curious creatures and normally scientists will rush out to study whatever we find fascinating or puzzling. But in this case, scientists won\u2019t touch it with a 10-foot pole. And that\u2019s the taboo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So even though the Navy is now saying, \u201cHey, we\u2019ve got UFOs on film, here they are,\u201d the scientists are still not going to study them. So there seems to be something blocking the scientific community from engaging this phenomenon, even though anything else even remotely this interesting would generate limitless research dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Is this some kind of conspiracy of silence? How does a taboo like this take hold in the first place?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We argued in our 2008 academic paper that the modern state is what we call anthropocentric. Basically, that means human beings are sovereigns. In ancient times, it was the gods or nature that was thought to rule over everything. Now it\u2019s human beings. And this principle is embodied in the state. And if you call that into question, if you call into question that the state is not the only potential sovereign here, the whole legitimacy of the state is called into question. So the whole worldview of the modern state is very vulnerable to the UFO question. You can\u2019t even ask the question because it raises the possibility that there could be ETs here. And that would just blow everything wide open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s an argument for why states might not be interested in this question, but it doesn\u2019t explain why non-state actors or the private sector isn\u2019t particularly eager to study this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now, that\u2019s a very good point. In our paper, we only dealt with states. What\u2019s interesting lately is that states seem more willing to engage with this than scientists. I think there\u2019s a hubris in the scientific community, a belief that human beings are the most intelligent species on this planet, and it\u2019s very hard to come to grips with the idea that if there are aliens here, they\u2019re obviously much smarter than we are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ve received a lot of emails from individual scientists in response to my TEDx talk. And all of them said the same thing, which is, \u201cThank you, we wish we could study this, but we can\u2019t because our lives depend on getting grants from the government and other research institutes, and if anybody gets worried that we\u2019re interested in UFOs, boom, they won\u2019t get a cent and their careers will be in the tank.\u201d But I still think most scientists believe this is all nonsense anyway, and that\u2019s frankly disappointing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I think there are other explanations here, but we\u2019ll get to that. First, let\u2019s talk about these Navy videos. What do you think you\u2019re seeing when you watch these?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The first thing I\u2019d say is that it doesn\u2019t matter what I think because I\u2019m not a scientist, right? I don\u2019t know what\u2019s on those videos. But to me, I listened to the pilots, to their voices, and I trust them much more than I would trust myself. And they\u2019re clearly seeing something extraordinary. Now, whether it\u2019s alien life, who knows? It\u2019s a plausible explanation. My point is that we should be agnostic about this and simply study it scientifically. Let\u2019s do the science and then we can talk about what we found. Until we\u2019ve done that, it\u2019s all bullshit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Is it possible that there is no real taboo and that the lack of rigorous study has more to do with the limits of the field or the paucity of evidence than anything else?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Well, it\u2019s true that the evidence we have is very vague. Most of it is anecdotal. It\u2019s not scientific. A lot of it is eyewitness reports. On the other hand, the evidence has been going on for many decades. It\u2019s very consistent, in many ways. It\u2019s all over the world. There\u2019s a huge number of cases and there is physical evidence in the form of videos or radar accounts. And when that evidence comes from the US Navy, it\u2019s safe to say that it\u2019s legit and not doctored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But what would a science of UFOs even look like? How do we study empirically something for which there\u2019s so little empirical evidence?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Like Elizabeth Warren says, I have a plan for that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Great, let\u2019s hear it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
About five years ago, some colleagues of mine and I formed a nonprofit called UFODATA. And the objective we set for the nonprofit was to create a ground-based network of surveillance stations that would monitor the sky 24\/7 with cameras and various other technologies, looking for UFOs. Anything comes along, boom, the cameras start snapping pictures or radar or film until the UFO passes. The technology is very sophisticated now and very cheap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t quite understand the need for that. There are thousands of satellites and radar systems operating all over the world at every moment, surveilling and recording and tracking. An obvious question is, why are there not more sightings? Why is there not more evidence? Why are there so few compelling pieces of evidence?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I think part of the problem is that a lot of the parameters of these technologies that we use to look for asteroids and meteors and all these other things are such that UFOs may not be within those parameters. And so they\u2019ll just be discarded as noise or unnoticeable junk. So that\u2019s one explanation for why we see less than we might.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Secondly, no one has bothered to actually look for UFOs. We\u2019re looking for ETs around distant stars, we\u2019re looking for comets, we\u2019re looking at all kinds of other things in the atmosphere. No one, as far as I know, is seriously looking for UFOs. But to me, it doesn\u2019t really matter why we don\u2019t see more. What matters is those three videos that the Navy released. I defy anyone to watch those and come away thinking there\u2019s nothing there worth investigating. Those pilots who spent thousands of hours in the sky, who are flying the most sophisticated machines in the entire world, are seeing something that they have never seen before and are completely blown away by it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Again, these are videos released by the Navy, and so I\u2019m inclined to believe what I\u2019m seeing. What\u2019s striking is that the objects don\u2019t behave like natural phenomena. One of the objects rotates as it\u2019s flying against the wind, which is not normal. And the pilots are clearly under the impression that these objects are under intelligent control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Are you persuaded at all by some of the non-ET explanations? For instance, that some of the UFOs are actually weather balloons or drones or shadows of aircraft above, and that what appear to be advanced maneuvers are really just the product of infrared glare or camera angles or eyewitness errors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I think the majority of UFO reports probably have conventional explanations like that and they\u2019re just misidentifications by observers on the ground. That\u2019s probably the majority of cases. So it\u2019s really the hardcore minority cases that don\u2019t have those kinds of obvious explanations. And that\u2019s where we have better physical evidence, or authoritative sources, like the military. And it\u2019s really easy to throw out skeptical possibilities. But I look at those videos and they don\u2019t look fake to me at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No, they don\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The pilots clearly don\u2019t think so, either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tell me the truth: You think it\u2019s aliens, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I think so. If I were placing a bet, I guess I would say 51 to 49 in favor of ETs. But it wouldn\u2019t surprise me at all if the opposite were true. Again, we haven\u2019t done the science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s a big number, Alex.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To say that something is hard to explain is not to say that it\u2019s inexplicable, though. It\u2019s entirely possible \u2014 likely, even \u2014 that there\u2019s a simple account of these encounters and we just don\u2019t have it yet. What\u2019s the Occam\u2019s razor explanation for these UFO sightings?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To me, the Occam\u2019s razor explanation is ETs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Really?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It explains all the cases just like that. And you don\u2019t need a whole bunch of different theories or assumptions for all these different phenomena, right? Because the phenomena are different. But I guess I don\u2019t see a competing explanation of any kind that would explain some of the stuff that we either have on film or the pilots have seen. And, again, why didn\u2019t the military come up with these alternative explanations? They must have thought about them and concluded it doesn\u2019t fit the data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m not sure that\u2019s right. They may have a strong hunch but simply can\u2019t prove it, so it remains officially \u201cunidentified.\u201d We can definitely say that the chances that aliens are involved is non-zero, but beyond that, I have no idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s pretty close to my position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But a weather balloon or malfunctioning radar systems or just eyewitness mistakes seem like much simpler explanations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But you\u2019d have to explain why multiple instruments were all malfunctioning in the same way at the same time. You\u2019ve got multiple jets up there, you\u2019ve got radar on the ships down below tracking at the same time. You\u2019ve got communications going on with people on the ships and the planes and the guys in the planes. So whatever explanations people do offer, they\u2019ve got to fit the data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It doesn\u2019t look like that was a weather balloon that those guys were seeing. I assume professional fighter pilots are pretty good at spotting and recognizing weather balloons, and surely that\u2019s a common occurrence. It\u2019s easy to be a skeptic here, I get that. All I\u2019m saying is that there\u2019s enough here to justify the science. The puzzle is that we\u2019re not doing the science. To me, that\u2019s the essential phenomenon that\u2019s of interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why should scientists care about UFOs? Why should philosophers care? Why should anyone care?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because if ETs were discovered, it would be the most important event in human history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If it became known, it could be a very dangerous event in the sense that we might see a collapse of state authority. We might see chaos. The possibility of contact with a civilization that has vastly more knowledge than we do is exciting and terrifying and unpredictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I mean, isn\u2019t that a case for putting our heads down and minding our fucking business? Stephen Hawking famously warned humanity about the perils of first contact with an alien species. \u201cIf aliens visit us,\u201d he said, \u201cthe outcome would be much as when Columbus landed in America, which didn\u2019t turn out well for the Native Americans.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Was he wrong?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
My feeling is that if they\u2019re here, they\u2019re almost certainly peaceful, because if they were not peaceful they would have wiped us out a long time ago. They can probably do it very quickly. So my assumption is they don\u2019t mean any harm. But it\u2019s still the case that society could implode or destabilize as a result of colliding with ETs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s a big assumption. If they are here, they might be peaceful, sure. But they might also be on a scouting operation. They might be looking for holes in our defenses, weaknesses in our societies and in our physical bodies. The point, obviously, is that we have no freaking idea. So maybe that\u2019s the case for following Hawking\u2019s lead here, right? Maybe it\u2019s best to not go poking about for superior life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ve thought about this, and I worry less about poking around and getting conquered and more about the potential realization that these things are here and then an internal implosion of our society. So I worry about my fellow human beings more than I worry about the aliens. So I guess in that sense, I disagree with Hawking\u2019s premise that they\u2019re out to get us. But sure, it\u2019s possible they\u2019re on a surveillance mission. But people have been reporting UFOs for at least 80 years, and that\u2019s a really, really long surveillance mission. And also, why would they want to conquer us? That\u2019s like us conquering ants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If some of these UFOs are the products of alien life, why haven\u2019t they made their presence more explicit? If they wanted to remain undetected, they could, and yet they continually expose themselves in these semi-clandestine ways. Why?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s a very good question. Because you\u2019re right, I think if they wanted to be completely secretive, they could. If they wanted to come out in the open, they could do that, too. My guess is that they have had a lot of experience with this in the past with civilizations at our stage. And they probably know that if they land on the White House lawn, there\u2019ll be chaos and social breakdown. People will start shooting at them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So I think what they\u2019re doing is trying to get us used to the idea that they\u2019re here with the hopes that we\u2019ll figure it out ourselves, that we\u2019ll go beyond the taboo and do the science. And then maybe we can absorb the knowledge that we\u2019re not alone and our society won\u2019t implode when we finally do have contact. That\u2019s my theory, but who knows, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s an interesting theory, and as likely as any other, but Hawking\u2019s theory is every bit as plausible \u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s right. But people have speculated that any civilization that\u2019s able to travel between the stars would have to become nonviolent, because they would never survive long enough if they\u2019re violent among themselves to actually reach a point where their technology was that sophisticated. And human beings don\u2019t seem to be as violent as we used to be, so there\u2019s that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I\u2019d say our institutions have evolved and the incentives guiding our behavior have evolved, but I don\u2019t think we have. I think human beings are as nonviolent as their circumstances allow them to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s fair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If there\u2019s a non-zero chance that aliens are real and they know we\u2019re here, it\u2019s crazy that governments aren\u2019t more concerned about the dangers. We\u2019ve all seen the same movies. How do you explain the apparent indifference here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For governments, there\u2019s no real upside to talking about this. They can\u2019t control this. If there are ETs, they don\u2019t have the power to do anything about it. They\u2019re helpless in the face of ETs. And there\u2019s a big downside risk of social chaos, loss of authority, loss of control and all that. So I think governments have lots of reasons to let a sleeping dog lie, which is why the Navy\u2019s thing is so surprising in a way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Maybe several governments already know of ETs and aren\u2019t revealing that knowledge for all the reasons you suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m a strong disbeliever in any kind of conspiracy argument. I don\u2019t think there has ever been a conspiracy to cover up the truth that we know that aliens are here. At most, we\u2019ve covered up the fact that we have no idea what\u2019s going on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What\u2019s the argument or the piece of evidence that gives you the most pause? What makes you think there\u2019s nothing here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s a good question. That I don\u2019t have a good answer shows my bias in a way. I guess I\u2019d like to see more videos of the sort the Navy just released. It\u2019s likely they have other videos they haven\u2019t released. So I guess I would like to see more physical evidence. I suppose that\u2019s my answer: The thing that gives me the most pause is that we have so little evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sean Illing<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You said a minute ago that we might be in a pre-contact situation in which ETs are gradually acclimating us to their presence. If that\u2019s true, what should we be doing to prepare for whatever comes next?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alexander Wendt<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Actually, that\u2019s the next article I would like to write. I don\u2019t know what the answer is right now. I only write articles where I don\u2019t know the answer ahead of time. But I guess I will say this: Montezuma could\u2019ve prepared a lot better for Cortes than he did, had he only known Cortes was coming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Excerpted from <\/em>https:\/\/www.vox.com\/policy-and-politics\/2020\/5\/8\/21244090\/pentagon-ufo-videos-navy-alexander-wendt<\/em><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"